Experts see droughts' impact

Speakers at a government environmental conference said Tuesday Oklahoma's droughts may be more severe this century as the earth's climate warms several degrees.

They noted the extreme severity of the state's current drought, which some said may last a decade and would rival the Dust Bowl of the 1930s if not for advances in farming technology and techniques.

The comments came after speeches from officials and scientists at the 27th annual Governor's Water Conference in downtown Oklahoma City.

Shaun McGrath, water policy program manager for the Western Governors' Association, presented conference attendees with evidence that Oklahoma will warm between 3 and 6 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.

If that happens, he said, water will evaporate faster, droughts may last longer and plants may have even more trouble surviving in the heat.

McGrath said such a temperature change would reduce the amount of available water by as much as 30 percent. He urged planning for global warming on a national level.

California recently became the only U.S. state to pass a carbon emissions cap on industry. And according to a study released last month by a former World Bank economist, global warming could shrink the world economy by as much as 20 percent this century.

If quick action is taken, that hit could be reduced to 1 percent, according to the report by British economist Nicholas Stern.

Dr. Ken Crawford, director of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, said after his presentation that the "jury is still out" on whether global warming is man-made.

However, he said, it is happening.

Warmer temperatures may put Oklahoma in a "vicious cycle" where less water is retained, temperatures keep increasing and more plants die, he said in an interview.

"My belief is there's no doubt that the globe is warming," he said. "Do I think humans are causing global warming? With some hesitation in my voice, I would say yes."

Crawford said the current drought is just beginning and may last a decade, based on historical patterns.

Oklahoma's climate typically oscillates between extreme wet and dry periods. State residents became spoiled during an "anomaly" of a long, wet period in the late 1980s and 1990s, he said.

This year, the state already has missed its chance to recharge soil moisture important to the survival of wheat crops, he said.

Several counties in north central Oklahoma are "flat-out powder dry" and probably will remain that way during the next growing season, he said.

This year is likely to be one of the top 10 driest in the state's 110-year weather record.

"We may get rain, but it may not percolate down to the root zone levels," he said.

The state's south and southeast part are faring better right now than north and northwest Oklahoma, he said.

Oklahoma Secretary of the Environment Miles Tolbert echoed Crawfor