Republicans consider loss of majority status

By Chris Casteel

Published: September 25, 2006

WASHINGTON - When U.S. Rep. Frank Lucas first was elected to Congress, he was, briefly, a member of the minority Republican Party.

That was in the spring of 1994, just a few months before Republicans regained power in the House for the first time in 40 years.

Since then, Lucas, R-Cheyenne, has climbed the ladder on the House Agriculture Committee and now is chairman of an important subcommittee, one that oversees conservation, credit and rural development. It is possible he could become chairman of the full committee in the next few years, depending on what a couple of GOP members with more seniority choose to do.

And depending on whether Republicans can retain the majority in the House this year.

That's a big question, less than two months before the Nov. 7 elections. Democrats are confident they can win the 15 seats necessary to wrest control from Republicans, and some national pundits also have predicted a Democratic wave.

If that happens, Lucas won't even have his subcommittee chairmanship, and his influence on the next farm bill, due to be written in 2007, would be greatly diminished. It's not a prospect he relishes.

"It's a lot more fun to have your hand on the gavel -- or at least be close enough to see the wood grain," he said.

Oklahoma's House delegation, already facing the loss of its senior member, Rep. Ernest Istook, could take other hits as well if the Democrats take over. Currently, four out of five of the members are Republicans, and Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin, a Republican, is favored to win Istook's seat Nov. 7.

Rep. Dan Boren, D-Muskogee, is the sole Oklahoman in Congress who stands to gain from a Democratic majority.

"Undoubtedly, as a delegation, we would lose some clout," Boren said. "But it also produces a unique opportunity for someone like myself who has been willing to work across the aisle and be bipartisan."

Whether or not the Democrats take control, the party is expected at least to pick up several more seats, and Boren said that would work to his favor as well, since he often sides with Republicans and could have some influence on close votes.

Coburn would 'make trouble'
A Democratic takeover on the Senate side, which has been considered less likely than a House change of power, also would profoundly effect Oklahoma's delegation.

Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa, is chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, a position he used last year to get a substantial boost in highway funding for Oklahoma. He also has been a key player in efforts to clean up the polluted Tar Creek area in northeast Oklahoma. Inhofe has his eye on a big prize -- chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee.

Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Muskogee, is just a freshman, but he is chairman of a financial management subcommittee that he has used to take aim at federal programs and practices he considers wasteful.

If Democrats win control of the Senate and Coburn no longer has his subcommittee, "I'll have an extra three hours a week to use to make trouble on the (Senate) floor," Coburn said.

He said he would be "much more aggressive" as a member of the minority -- though some might wonder how that would be possible, given the battles he already has waged.

But Coburn, referencing the Senate rules that give each senator and the minority party power over the flow of legislation, said, "The great thing about the Senate is the majority has limited power."

If he were in the minority, Rep. Tom Cole, R-Moore, would lose the clout he has on the powerful Rules Committee, a panel hand-picked by the House speaker to set the parameters for debate on all legislation that goes to the floor.

If Democrats take over, the loss to Oklahoma won't just be in chairmanships and committee posts, Cole said.

"In terms of the views and values of the average Oklahoman, we'll lose ground," he said. "We don't have a Republican delegation by accident."

Cole said some issues of concern to Oklahomans tend to be more regional than partisan -- such as agriculture -- and that Democrats and Republicans on the Armed Services Committee tend to work well together. And he said the Republican members of the delegation could continue to be effective lawmakers, even in the minority.

Cole, a political expert who hopes to be chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee next year, said he's worried about the elections but not convinced Democrats can take the House.

"I do think this is a very competitive election," he said. "I think the House is in play. Democrats have an opportunity, but they haven't closed the sale with the American people."

Lucas and Rep. John Sullivan, R-Tulsa, also said they consider their majority status safe, though both said the Democrats are likely to close the gap.

Sullivan holds a seat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, one of the most coveted committees in the House, and is not in danger in losing it if the Democrats took over. He may, he said, be able to take the reins of a subcommittee as soon as 2008, depending on what other members do.

If Republicans lose the majority, he said, "it would be very detrimental to Oklahoma."

Sullivan said it would be hard for one person in the majority -- Boren -- to cover the ground that four lawmakers are doing now. Funding for the state's infrastructure and universities could be hurt, Sullivan said, and its voice on such issues as energy would be diminished.

Even if Republicans retain the majority, Istook, R-Warr Acres, who is running for governor, is leaving a major hole in the delegation.

Istook has been on the Appropriations Committee since coming to Congress in 1993 and his predecessor, Republican Mickey Edwards, also served on the powerful panel.

Boren and Cole both said they would consider going for an open seat on that panel. Boren said he would also look at any chance of getting on the Ways and Means Committee, which writes tax policy and oversees entitlement programs.

Cole said what the delegation also needs is "a period of stability" to build up seniority. The average service of a House member is 11 years, he said. With Istook leaving, only Lucas will have close to that. Boren is a freshman, Cole is in his second term and Sullivan is in his second full term.

"The biggest thing I think we need is longevity."