Istook has chance, analysts say

Republican gubernatorial candidate Ernest Istook, his campaign nearly out of money and not yet able to develop a theme that seems to excite voters, still can be a viable foe for Gov. Brad Henry, political observers said.

"Of course, Istook has a chance," said Bob Darcy, an Oklahoma State University political science professor. "The difficulty that Istook has is that he, to most Oklahomans, is an unknown. Henry is a known. We've lived under Henry for almost four years now, and he hasn't let us down. Things have worked."

Darcy said the first step for Istook is to raise money.

Istook, who is giving up certain re-election to central Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District to run for governor, also has to figure out what his message is, Darcy said.

"Going after him (Henry) is going to be really, really difficult with just loose talk," said Darcy, a Republican.

Many have the perception that Henry is a shoo-in to win re-election, and "that could hurt him," said Jim Davis, who has taught political science at OSU since 1978. "People just know he's going to win so they don't turn out, in which case Istook could sneak up on him."

Oklahoma Democratic Party Chairman Lisa Pryor said her party wouldn't let that happen.

"We have so many other elections also on the ballot (in November)," she said. "We're very intent about the importance of the state Senate. We also are very, very focused on the lieutenant governor's race. There's going to be plenty of opportunities and plenty of reasons for Democrats to get out and vote, and while they're doing it they're going to also vote for Governor Henry."

Henry said he is concerned some voters may think his re-election "is just going to be a cakewalk."

"It's going to be a hard-fought battle, and we have to work harder than we've ever worked before," he said.

Istook said he can rally Republicans and gain enough Democrats and independents to beat Henry. Last week two of his primary foes, Bob Sullivan and state Sen. James Williamson of Tulsa, endorsed his gubernatorial bid.

"Istook is an effective candidate, he's done well with his party," Davis said. "He can make a party argument that the real conservatives, the Republicans, ought to be in charge of governorship, just make a party argument and not base it so much on mistakes of Henry. I don't think there's been any."

Still, Istook faces an "uphill" battle, said Davis, a Democrat.

"Henry can pull some Republican support because of his conservatism, and because he's an incumbent and he hasn't made any move that offended large groups of voters," he said.

Oklahoma Republican Party Chairman Tom Daxon said Oklahomans shouldn't assume a Henry victory in the fall.

"This election's not over," he said. "You're going to see Ernest Istook talking about issues that are important to Oklahomans. I think you're going to see him closing in and you will see him winning before we're done."

Henry leads in fund raising
Henry has raised about $3.3 million; his campaign earlier this month reported about $2.6 million still available to spend.

Istook raised about $1 million, including $25,000 he loaned the campaign. Asked last week how much money he has on hand, Istook said, "Not much."

Darcy said Henry will need to continue to raise money.

"He's got to double what he's raised so far," Darcy said. "You've got to have a campaign that's ready to hit back if they go negative."

Henry said he is going to stay focused on a positive, upbeat, issue-oriented campaign. He will talk about improvements in education funding and teacher pay, as well as improved access to health care and more money for roads and bridges.

Campaign changes focus
Istook said with the primary over his campaign is developing plans to win the Nov. 7 election.

"We're focusing on fund raising, we're focusing on organization, we're focusing on honing our message even better," Istook said.

"My goal is to help Oklahoma to grow," he said. "And I don't mean grow in government, I mean an increase in the number of good and high-paying jobs in Oklahoma."

During his tenure in Congress, Istook helped bring high-paying medical research jobs to the state, and helped bring the new weather research center in Norman and aviation jobs at Tinker Air Force Base, he said.

Istook has tried to develop a theme against Henry, but none seem to stick. He criticized Henry on the lottery and American Indian casino gaming, the tobacco tax and for not doing anything to crack down on illegal immigrants. He said Henry, who took office in 2003 with the state facing nearly a $700 million shortfall, deserves no credit for the state's booming economy, which owes most of its success the past two years to the thriving oil and gas industry.

Governor hopes for debate
Some of his campaign material states Henry supported last year's proposed fuel tax; the governor didn't. Istook told reporters Henry "sponsored" a bill that allows undocumented students who graduate from Oklahoma high schools to pay in-state tuition. Henry signed the bill, but it was not part of his legislative agenda.

Henry said he hopes to debate Istook.

"It'll be a little bit harder for him to distort my record and stretch the truth to my face," he said.

Istook won nearly 55 percent of the votes cast in Tuesday's Republican primary. His nearest competitor, Sullivan, received about 31 percent.

Istook's performance drew mixed reviews.

"I would have been much more surprised if Istook didn't win it without a runoff because the other candidates in my opinion didn't mount much of a campaign," Darcy said.

Davis said Istook did better than he thought he would.

"I thought Bob Sullivan's commercials would take a bigger toll, but they didn't," Davis said.

Unofficial results from Tuesday's balloting show Henry received 226,921 votes in the Democratic primary where he faced opposition from a little-known candidate, Andrew Marr Jr. of Norman, who did not campaign. Henry tallied more than twice the 99,634 votes cast for Istook.

Henry garnered about 45,000 more votes than all the Republican gubernatorial candidates -- Istook, Sullivan, Williamson and Mustang engineer Jim Evanoff -- combined.

That doesn't seem to overwhelm Istook.

"I've taken on tough challenges before and have succeeded," Istook said.

In 1992, Istook beat then-U.S. Rep. Mickey Edwards, R-Oklahoma City. Voters were upset about Edwards' involvement in the House Bank overdraft scandal. Edwards, the first Oklahoma congressman defeated in a re-election bid in 14 years, finished third to former U.S. Attorney Bill Price and Istook, then a state representative from Warr Acres. Istook defeated Price in the runoff.

Istook also can look to four years ago when Henry was the underdog against Republican gubernatorial nominee Steve Largent. Henry finished a distant second in the Democratic primary, but won a runoff and ended up beating Largent and independent Gary Richardson.

Largent saw his lead against Henry shrink as he made several mistakes on the campaign trail, Davis said. That won't happen to Henry.

"He's way too cautious, way too well-advised," Davis said.

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