The election race for one of Oklahoma's U.S. Senate seats is nearly a dead heat, a KWTV NEWS9 poll released Monday shows.
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With U.S. Rep. Brad Carson's advantage of 1 percentage point over Republican Tom Coburn well within the poll's margin of error, both camps are preparing for a fight that may not end until the last ballot on Nov. 2.
"It's going to be a dog fight all the way to the end," said Brad Luna, a spokesman for Carson's campaign. "We're planning on doing everything we can right up until the last moment the last polls close."
As recently as August, Coburn had a 9-point lead over Carson in a poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies, which also administered the most recent poll.
"We're not worried about the numbers because we knew from day one this was going to be a close race," Coburn campaign spokesman Aaron Cooper said.
"As Dr. Coburn always likes to say, 'We're just concerned with the polls taken on election day.'"
The poll released Monday is the third of nine weekly polls sponsored by NEWS9 and conducted by the Virginia-based company.
The poll of 500 Oklahoma registered voters was taken by telephone from Friday to Sunday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Of the registered voters polled, 41 percent said they would vote for Carson, D-Claremore, and 40 percent said they would vote for Coburn, of Muskogee.
Carson picked up support from many conservative Democrats, said Chris Wilson, president of Wilson Research Strategies.
Last week, Carson and Coburn each tallied about one-third of the conservative Democrats' support. Coburn retained about the same number in Monday's poll, but Carson's support among the group grew to 46 percent, Wilson said. Twenty-one percent of the conservative Democrats were undecided.
Last week, the campaign heated up when Coburn, a physician, was forced to respond to allegations of medical malpractice and Medicaid fraud brought in a 1991 lawsuit. The lawsuit was dismissed in 1995.
"Obviously, we've taken a few hits because Brad Carson and his liberal friends have been trying to wage a smear campaign by drudging up old things from his past that no one else has decided to use," Cooper said.
"That doesn't worry us."
Wilson said that for Carson to maintain his support he will have to win over many who intend to vote for President Bush, who garnered 64 percent support in the recent poll. Bush had a lead of 40 percentage points over Democrat John Kerry.
"You're really seeing Bush start to pull away," Wilson said. "If Bush gets in the mid-60s, that could have a huge impact on down-ballot races. ... For Carson to win, he's going to have to get one in three Bush voters if Bush gets 65 percent."
Those in Carson's camp don't think that will be a problem, given their man's nonpartisan voting record.
"We expect full well to get a great majority of those folk who are going to be supporting President Bush," Luna said.
Other answers in the NEWS9 poll continued to show support for state questions establishing a lottery, legalizing casino-style gambling at horse racetracks and tribal casinos, adding a new cigarette tax and amending the state Constitution to outlaw gay marriage.
